GLTSS

Openness is important for the future of a company, says Biz Stone, CEO of Twitter

In digital media, as in fortune-telling, the future is pretty much treated as part of the present. "What is the next big thing?" is a question everyone who works with the internet asks continually. But after several years of boom, the question of what comes after social platforms is no longer so remote.

Luckily, some experts just gave us answers. On Monday evening, the Said Business School in Oxford had invited some very bright and successful entrepreneurs who spoke in front of a packed alumni audience as Silicon Valley came to Oxford for the ninth year. The event was chaired by the very lively and assertive Frances Cairncross, rector of Exeter college.

The first expert to confront us with an answer was Peter Thiel, who co-founded PayPal and made early investments in Facebook and LinkedIn. He reminded us to evaluate first what stage we're at with social networks. "With digital technology there is a tendency to underestimate when things are getting mature, but to understand the financial and technological situation it is really important," he explained.

"If you look back from today, it becomes clear that in 2002 even experts missed that Google had already become the main search engine. If people would have understood back at that time that there was no chance any more to outrun Google, some investments would have been different. But back at these days we didn't discuss Google like this."

He asked the audience: "Where in the history of social network are we? Are we at an early stage, and most of the companies won't be around in a few years' time? Or are we in a late stage, when companies like Facebook, LinkedIn or Twitter are really mature and will be in business to stay?"

Then he floated a bigger and more daring possibility – that the development stage of the internet itself has come to an end: "Are we at the end of innovation of social networking? And is social networking the last innovation of the internet?"

"See, we went from the development of telecommunication to the internet and from the internet to social networking. Maybe there is no innovation left any more, and we have to look for it in a completely different direction. Maybe we have to go back to space and science fiction novels."

Being the CEO of Twitter, Biz Stone was quite sure that for him that wasn't the case. After having said to reporters earlier in the day that he was not thinking about selling the company but would rather go to the stock market if necessary, he started to relax the atmosphere, joking that he felt he was on a Seinfeld panel asking: "Social networks, what's the deal?"

Then he shuffled himself out of the responsibility of answering that question, stating that Twitter isn't even a social network. "Twitter never asked anyone to have a permanent relationship among each other. Indeed, we even changed the question we used to asked on Twitter 'What are you doing?' last week in 'What's happening?' because everybody was ignoring it anyway."

"I refer to Twitter as an information network rather then a social network. And here I believe in the trend of openness. Using an open technology, creating an open platform, and being more transparent that is where we are heading."

Stone believes that technology has a political impact that shouldn't be underestimated. Referring to Twitter's involvement in the Iranian election protests, he said: "On a large scale, the open exchange of information can even lead to positive global impact. If people are more informed they are more engaged, and if they are more engaged they are more empathic. They are global citizens, not just a citizen of a nation."

Ram Shriram, a founding board member of Google and one of the search giant's first investors, pointed discussion in a different direction. "Combining social and mobile – there is a new wave of oppportunities coming up, a growth of users, so mobile internet is clearly the next major computing cycle. And this time this didn't start in the US, but in Asia and Europe from where it is going to the US," he said.

"In China and India people always used their mobile as their PC; that was the way they accessed data. We face powerful new waves of publishing with YouTube, Facebook and Twitter, and the social sits in the middle of this. There is a creation and production of information. There will be new distribution and consumption patterns which will impact society. This might even make newspapers even more irrelevant."

Then he made a number of predictions: "Facebook will replace email for a new generation. The chat is moving to a multimedia format. Gaming will move from devices directly to the internet. And Apple has a big future because of its strong mobile focus."

Otherwise, the coming mobile business opportunities would be taken by small young companies, because it was easy and cheap to build these applications, which would either fail or succeed at speed. Shriram also believes that advertising will grow less important: "Users tend to pay on the mobile internet for premium services."

LinkedIn-CEO Reid Hoffman believes that there is more to come of the data generated by social networks

LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman, who graduated from Stanford University and Oxford with a master's degree in philosophy, tackled Thiel's social-networks-are-the-end thesis head on. "I actually think we are just beginning to see how people launch the eventualities of social networks into their life," he said, reminding the audience of the way that mobile phones had grown from a tool for bankers to a part of everyone's life.

"I think the phenomenon of the online relationship empowers our personal and professional life. You might think 'Who wants to consume all this useless information?', but with some information it is like with ice cream. It is not nutritious, but people still eat it. And to understand what will go on, you will have to switch that to business models."

For Facebook, Last.fm and Flickr applications, he argued, using live data would become much more important. "Today you have everyone generating data.I think these massive amounts of data are perfect for new applications. There will be a lot of new applications come out of it. Obvious ones, like whom you should meet professionally, and some we don't even thing about. There will be interesting mash ups liked LinkedIn and Twitter."

An Oxford lecturer, Dr Kate Blackmon put this in a nutshell in saying that the future was not about crowd sourcing but crowd filtering.

So is social media over? There are now enough social networks to fill all the obvious niches; but making use of the stream of information that pours into them is something we've only just started.

In 2009 we saw exponential growth of social media. According to Nielson Online, Twitter alone grew 1,382% year-over-year in February, registering a total of just more than 7 million unique visitors in the US for the month. Meanwhile, Facebook continued to outpace MySpace. So what could social media look like in 2010? In 2010, social media will get even more popular, more mobile, and more exclusive — at least, that's my guess. What are the near-term trends we could see as soon as next year? In no particular order:

1. Social media begins to look less social
With groups, lists and niche networks becoming more popular, networks could begin to feel more "exclusive." Not everyone can fit on someone's newly created Twitter list and as networks begin to fill with noise, it's likely that user behavior such as "hiding" the hyperactive updaters that appear in your Facebook news feed may become more common. Perhaps it's not actually less social, but it might seem that way as we all come to terms with getting value out of our networks — while filtering out the clutter.

2. Corporations look to scale
There are relatively few big companies that have scaled social initiatives beyond one-off marketing or communications initiatives. Best Buy's Twelpforce leverages hundreds of employees who provide customer support on Twitter. The employees are managed through a custom built system that keeps track of who participates. This is a sign of things to come over the next year as more companies look to uncover cost savings or serve customers more effectively through leveraging social technology.

3. Social business becomes serious play
Relatively new networks such as Foursquare are touted for the focus on making networked activity local and mobile. However, it also has a game-like quality to it which brings out the competitor in the user. Participants are incentivized and rewarded through higher participation levels. And push technology is there to remind you that your friends are one step away from stealing your coveted "mayorship." As businesses look to incentivize activity within their internal or external networks, they may include carrots that encourage a bit of friendly competition.

4. Your company will have a social media policy (and it might actually be enforced)
If the company you work for doesn't already have a social media policy in place with specific rules of engagement across multiple networks, it just might in the next year. From how to conduct yourself as an employee to what's considered competition, it's likely that you'll see something formalized about how the company views social media and your participation in it.

5. Mobile becomes a social media lifeline
With approximately 70 percent of organizations banning social networks and, simultaneously, sales of smartphones on the rise, it's likely that employees will seek to feed their social media addictions on their mobile devices. What used to be cigarette breaks could turn into "social media breaks" as long as there is a clear signal and IT isn't looking. As a result, we may see more and/or better mobile versions of our favorite social drug of choice.

6. Sharing no longer means e-mail
The New York Times iPhone application recently added sharing functionality which allows a user to easily broadcast an article across networks such as Facebook and Twitter. Many websites already support this functionality, but it's likely that we will see an increase in user behavior as it becomes more mainstream for people to share with networks what they used to do with e-mail lists. And content providers will be all too happy to help them distribute any way they choose.

These are a few emerging trends that come to my mind — I'm interested to hear what you think as well, so please weigh in with your own thoughts. Where do you see social media going next?

David Armano is part of the founding team at Dachis Group, an Austin based consultancy delivering social business design services. He is both an active practitioner and thinker in the worlds of digital marketing, experience design, and the social web. You can follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/armano

People who read this also read:

People Who Like This Also Like

• Pleasing Wall Street is a Poor Excuse for Bad Decisions 28416601
  Ed Catmull
• Google Wave Attempts to Modernize Email 28312914
  Gina Trapani
• The Downsides of Branding 26637468
  Rosabeth Moss Kanter
• The U.S. Can't Manufacture the Kindle and That's a Problem 28290340
  Willy C. Shih
• Outsourcing: The Culprit Is Capitalism, Not Wall Street 28527845
  Andy Rappaport
• Bridging the Geek-Suit Divide 28624651
  Andrew McAfee

* * *
Never miss a new post from your favorite blogger again with the HarvardBusiness.org Daily Alert email. The Alert delivers the latest blog posts from HarvardBusiness.org and HBR.org directly to your inbox every morning at 8:00 AM ET.